Uncertainty sources in climate change impact modelling of water resource systems

Abstract

Modelling climate change impacts on water resources have been widely acknowledged to have various complexities. These complexities are due to the complex, dynamic and non-linear characteristics of the changes in atmospheric, climatological and hydrological processes. These changes are majorly as a result of human activities. Assessment of the potential impacts of these changes with the goal of planning adaptation strategies has given birth to numerous methodologies and approaches. However, uncertainty still occurs at almost every phase of the modelling process; from the development and downscaling of emission scenarios to the use of hydrological models. This paper reviews some of the current methods employed in hydrological modelling of climate change impacts and identifies the key sources of uncertainty inherent at each stage of the hydrological modelling process. Strategies that would incorporate of all sources of uncertainty while ensuring complementary modelling are suggested. These strategies would help in achieving meaningful progress with respect to the development of adaptive water resource systems, and also positively influence decision-making by relevant stakeholders.