The development of a computerised simulation model to guide the South African higher education sector in short and long-term planning of TEL infrastructure

Abstract

This study deals with the development of a computerised simulation model to guide the South African higher education (HE) sector in short and longterm planning of TEL (technology enhanced learning) infrastructure. A critical realist orientation was adopted, using a case study approach focusing on provision of TEL infrastructure at three Natal universities, namely, the Durban University of Technology, the University of KwaZuluNatal and Mangosuthu University of Technology. A mixed methods approach was used, combining qualitative with quantitative techniques, in order to collect data to establish key model specifications. The qualitative aspect comprised an online survey to obtain user feedback on the proposed computerised simulation. Quantitative methodology involved using functional decomposition design to extract the specifications from the data. The computerised simulation model was developed using a system dynamics approach which could define forecasting in operational terms, and thus offer various scenarios to guide institutional decision-makers in future planning. The systems model thus developed was then configured online using simulation software and tested out with key stakeholders. While computerised simulations currently exist in the area of infrastructural forecasting, the new contribution to the field is thought to be in forecasting the provision of TEL infrastructure.